Monday, January 16, 2012

Forecaster of the year loses his job

Jim O’Sullivan is ranked the top forecaster of the year. He is credited with outperforming the consensus forecasts of other leading economists. However, the economic downturn sank his employer and Jim lost his job like the rest of the employees of MF Global Inc.

“When forecasting the data, in the end we are just trying to be the least inaccurate among our peers,” O’Sullivan said. No one can get them all, he admits. But he still tries to beat the consensus on every number he forecasts. “It is do-able if you do the homework, if you combine econometrics with judgment borne of experience.”


Forecasters of the year

2004 Maury Harris & Jim O'Sullivan, UBS

2005 Brian Jones, Citigroup

2006 Maury Harris & Jim O'Sullivan, UBS

2007 Stephen Stanley, RBS Greenwich Capital

2008 Maury Harris & Jim O'Sullivan, UBS

2009 Nigel Gault &  Brian Bethune, IHS Global Insight

2010 Spencer Staples, EconAlpha

2011 Jim O'Sullivan, MF Global

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